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\J Martin Feldstein in \F1The Economics of the New
Unemployment\F0 seems implicitly to have the following model of the
jobs available to disadvantaged workers and paying near the minimum
wage.
The job is "dead end" and "has no future", but if only the
employer didn't have to pay the minimum wage he could combine it with
training for a better job. It can also be made more attractive so
there will be less labor turnover.
No doubt there are some jobs like this, but my
problem in believing it is that I can't think of any examples.
The jobs I know that pay
near the minimum wage are dishwasher, counterman, houseworker, movie
usher, and service station attendant. It seems to me that these jobs
have the following characteristics:
1. They cannot be eliminated at the present level of
technology. Several millions of people have to be found to do them.
2. They cannot be enriched in a significant way. They can be
made to pay better and the working conditions can be improved. There
is no way of doubling the productivity of a movie usher or a
houseworker by training. Of course, some countermen can be trained
to become hamburger stand managers, but this won't reduce the
requirement for countermen.
3. Often their low pay is not related to any specific
characteristics of the job itself but rather to the bargaining power
of a group of workers or to some characteristic of the industry.
Thus, nurses now get more than some workers they used to get less than.
To the extent that the low paying jobs satisfy this model
rather than Feldstein's, we come to the conclusion that the minimum
wage ought to be increased rather than reduced. This will presumably
increase the attractiveness of these jobs relative to the various
ways of getting money without working. It is also fairer.
Of course, if the jobs are intrinsically uninteresting, then
increasing the pay will cause some people to work less in order to
have more leisure. This should be accepted as a desirable
development, and as Feldstein suggests, the unemployment insurance
laws should be reworked so that this voluntary idleness doesn't get
confused with real unemployment. Moreover, if increasing the minimum
wage causes some of these jobs to be eliminated by mechanization -
good riddance. Increasing aggregate demand will get new jobs, and
the more efficient economy will make more money available for doing
good.
I fear that if Feldstein's proposals are adopted, instead of
handing the new movie usher a flashlight and starting him to work at
$1.60 per hour, they will start him at $1.20 an hour but enrich his
life with two hours a day of lectures and laboratory on how to repair
the flashlight and how to place the people with bags of popcorn so
they won't disturb others. He will also have to read \F1The Fall of
the House of Usher\F0 in order to get beyond apprenticeship.
Of course, the
job will have a future - one can aspire to become a lecturer
in usherology. When job turnover increases, the administrators of the
usher training program will propose more intensive lectures, financed
perhaps, by reducing further the stipend of the trainees.
Kidding aside, the effect of changes in the minimum wage and
other actios designed to affect unemployment depends on how many jobs
there are which can increase their productivity by upgrading and by
also on the possibilities for mechanizing these low level jobs. This
is not a matter that can be answered by pure economic theory; it depends
on the characteristics of the industries concerned. Would Professor
Feldstein care to estimate the number of jobs satisfying the various
models?\.